According to data released by the Economic and Information Commission of Guangdong Province, in February 2016, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI of key enterprises) in Guangdong Province was 48.2, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among the five weighting indexes, the production volume index and new orders The index fell, and the raw material inventory index, production and operation personnel index, and supplier delivery time index rebounded.

Among them, the production index (production volume) was 46.8, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production volume of manufacturing enterprises such as the shoe button factory in Guangdong Province decreased from the previous month. The new order index (product orders) was 47.7, a drop of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the province’s manufacturing orders decreased this month from the previous month.

The raw material inventory index was 49.2, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the raw material inventory of manufacturing companies such as Guangdong shoe button factories continued to decrease this month, but the reduction narrowed. The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 47.6, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month, and stayed below the line of prosperity for eight consecutive months, indicating that the number of employees in manufacturing enterprises such as shoe button factories in the province has decreased, but the reduction has narrowed.

Chen Hongyu, a special interpreter of the Guangdong PMI index and a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee, believes that in February, the production volume index and the new order index, which accounted for 25% and 30% of the PMI index weight, fell sharply by 4.5 and 2.5 percentage points respectively from January. New export orders fell sharply by 2.6 percentage points to only 48.6. Among the 11 sub-indexes, 5 items were above the prosperity and decline lines last month, and 9 items fell below the prosperity and decline lines this month. "These factors together caused our province's PMI index to fall to its lowest level since March 2015, and the downward pressure on Guangdong's manufacturing enterprises has further increased."

Chen Hongyu believes that the raw material inventory in February rose by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, the supplier delivery time index rebounded by 1.2 percentage points, and the slowdown in logistics should be related to the lack of business days during the Spring Festival and Lantern Festival and the booming market consumption.

According to his analysis, although six sub-indices rose in February compared with January, four of them were still below the ups and downs, indicating that the overall downward trend of Guangdong's manufacturing industry has not reversed, and only some of the indexes have slowed down. In February, the Guangdong finished product inventory index rose sharply by 6.7 percentage points, reaching a historical high of 62.6, indicating that corporate inventories have been greatly reduced before and after the Spring Festival, and the three order indexes of new orders, export orders and backlog orders have declined across the board, indicating that the manufacturing in Guangdong Province The market environment of the industry is still not optimistic, and the issue of “stable orders” and “stable sales” of enterprises is worthy of attention.

As the largest foreign trade province, Guangdong still has a relatively high degree of dependence on foreign trade. Xiao Yaofei, deputy director of the International Economics and Trade Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, analyzed the CBN Daily that under the current international economic situation, the downturn in foreign trade exports will still last for a long time. In any case, it is no longer possible for Guangdong's foreign trade imports and exports to reproduce the high growth in the past, and the stimulating effect of foreign trade exports on the economy will continue to weaken.

An analysis by the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics pointed out that although the overall economy of Guangdong remains stable, it is also facing many difficulties and there is greater downward pressure. Data show that in 2015, the province's electricity consumption in the whole society increased by 1.4%, of which industrial electricity consumption fell by 0.4%, which was in the negative growth range for three consecutive months, and the manufacturing electricity consumption fell by 2.1%, which was the lowest point for the year. In addition, factors such as the continuous increase in labor costs and intensified market competition have also increased the difficulty of business operations, and enterprises have a strong desire for tax reduction and exemption.

Chen Hongyu suggested that Guangdong should continue to pay attention to the changes on the demand side and conduct segmentation research on the target market of enterprises while tightly holding on to the supply-side structural reforms and improving the quality and efficiency of the manufacturing industry and the real economy through innovation. To figure out which products are truly "attractive" and "reassuring" to the market, and to actively expand the market and reduce product inventory as the primary task of stabilizing business operations and stabilizing employee confidence after the beginning of the spring.

On the other hand, he suggested to sort out various macro policies to reduce the operating costs of enterprises, check the implementation, and transform government functions, improve the service efficiency of banking institutions, introduce and cultivate various policies for scientific research talents, and promote innovation in the province. Various support measures for driving and supporting the real economy and optimizing the industrial structure are integrated and docked to effectively help companies reduce financing costs and systems